Tuesday, May 6, 2008

Brad DeLong some cracking recent posts

This one on Jeff Sach's gloomy condemnation of US monetary policy contains a surprising statement:

I confess, I don't see why the Fed can't prevent a recession. Push the value of the dollar down far enough and export and import-competing manufacturing will grow fast enough to prevent a recession. The Fed may not like the inflation that this generates. But I don't see why monetary expansion will necessarily be ineffective in boosting output and employment.

As a naive economist I find that almost alarming; a statement that growth can be achieved whatever the circumstances if monetary growth is allowed to proceed far enough. Unsurprisingly, this occasions a host of comments below. Is this not Philips curve territory? Or is the fact that the US is not being treated like a closed economy, and the rest of the world (Asia at least) is doing well, significant in squaring the circle?

Surely, at some point, just devaluing the US currency cannot bring about endless growth for US citizens? If they have been borrowing off the rest of the world, surely they have to repay at some point, and devaluing the currency the rest of the world is owed in, again surely, has some kind of bad consequence?

This piece about the way the lower sections of US income distribution are not joining in the endless growth is also worth filing away. There is a splendidly pessimistic Malthusian analysis in one of the comments by someone calling himself Maynard, and via his blog I found THIS list of lectures about finance. Christ was a sad man I am, but they look intersting and useful

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