Crisis what crisis etc etc

The view that is in no party's interests to propound: See it here. The FT's analysis surprised me all the same - household gearing is far better than in 1988-9, so a larger fall is needed for a big negative equity crisis. Gloomy commentators who want to believe the current world is mad and look back on a sensible period 20 years before provide more fuel to the adage that there are few historians as shoddy as the romantic conservative.

I personally think the other big story of the year so far -the breakneck inflation in essential commodities, possibly ending a trend that has been fairly solid for decades - is going to have a bigger long-term impact than the momentary disruption of financial markets. In the Economist web edition, this story is worth reading on that subject. There are few winners.

Though if the credit crunch continues to see massive spreads in LIBOR, this article blaming it on money-market aversion to lending to banks, and the academic papers it sources, will be worth looking back on. Philip Stephens a couple of weeks ago also asked if the excitement is getting to the financial markets commentators. Munchau today takes a different view.

I really enjoyed Bagehot this week, being reminded of the excellence of its prose which is not matched regularly elsewhere. I like the economy of the writing, its ability to put across several points in quite taut sentences. For example:

As with voters, so with Mr Brown's cooling romance with his own MPs. Part of the explanation is that parliamentary rebellion, rather like adultery, is habit-forming: at first it feels impossible, then transgressive and finally mundane. There is also, inevitably, a swelling cadre of alienated MPs—has-been ex-ministers and never-going-to-be-and-know-it backbenchers—for whom infidelity seems costless. As Mr Brown's poll ratings wane, self-interest (ie, keeping their seats) actively motivates some MPs to distance themselves from him.

I could go on, but (a) I am bored with this and knackered after a six-mile jog and another full weekend of childcare* in a three-quarters house and (b) somewhat depressed by the idea that my horizons are set by the Economist and FT Weekend edition. Oh, and Roy Jenkins' "Life at the Centre" which is hardly a laugh a minute, though interesting; the last chapter, having him describing in detail his preferences for different EU Commissioners of the 70's, could have been missed.


*following her earlier attempts at self-destruction through the ingestion of large coins and spraying bleach spray into her endlessly-experimenting gob, Florence took a more straightforward approach today by heading into the road for a laugh. Caroline almost gave birth on the spot, except the baby was quivering within her, still in shock at the mighty kick that F had dealt it in the swimming pool. F fortunately has reserves of charm to get her out of all the trouble.